NEWS RELEASE
COMPLIMENTARY REPORT: Japan’s Wood Imports and Industry
Despite weakening demographics, there are still some growth sectors and good business in Japan!
December 17, 2020 — Vancouver, BC
RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL is pleased to announce a complimentary report that summarizes Japan’s wood imports and industry, including historical trends, key issues, and major developments. The Japan Part 1 report covers log and wood products imports and domestic production and supply trends, including some historical perspectives back to the 1960s and 1970s.
Despite the runaway US market right now, Japan is still a most important market for global exporters of higher quality and value-added/engineered products. Understanding and reviewing some of the major industry/market trends and issues in Japan should be useful to most industry players.
A Part 2 report (“Japan Market and Consumption Trends & Outlook”) will be released in January.
The full Part 1 report is available by request: simply send an email to: russtaylor@russtaylorglobal.com .
Highlights of the report are summarized here:
Total Imports
Japan’s imports of logs and wood products essentially peaked back in 1973 at 120 million m3 (roundwood equivalent basis, or RWE). While total imports got close to this level later in 1978-79 and through the 1988 to 1997 period, the current level of imports have been much lower at around the 80 million m3 (roundwood equivalent) level over the last decade. Japan’s total wood imports (RWE) have been trending somewhat higher since 2009 – a good omen despite an aging and declining population – but current levels of total log and wood imports are below those of 1970s.
Log Imports
Japan’s imported log volumes have trended downward since engineered wood products (EWP) were introduced, including into post and beam (Zarai) house construction. From a peak in the 1970s of an average of 40 million m3, log imports have dropped steadily. South Sea tropical log exports have almost disappeared, as have Russian and Chilean logs – all since the mid- to late 2000s. All that remains is a small volume of radiata pine logs from New Zealand with Douglas-fir from Canada and the US PNW that are holding at relatively steady volumes since 2008, where current log imports are in the 3-4 million m3 range. Softwood log imports have dropped from a peak of 18 million m3 in 1987-89 period to about 3-4 million m3 currently. Log import volumes are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years from steady demand at plywood and sawmills.
Softwood Lumber Imports
Softwood lumber imports have been in a slow decline since the start of the 2000s and have moved from almost 9 million m3 to around 5-6 million m3 today. It is expected that this threshold level could hold, given the quality and specifications of imported softwood lumber that is not available from domestic forests.
Canada and the USA have lost import volume and market share in Japan, while European exporters (especially Scandinavia) as well as Russia, Romania and Chile have held their volumes relatively constant. Lumber imports are forecast to decline again in 2020 from COVID-19 impacts; through October 2020, imports were 10.5% below 2019’s pace.
Japan’s Self-Sufficiency of Wood
Japan’s increase of maturing sugi and hinoki forests has been increasing its self-sufficiency of domestic timber usage as compared to its total wood consumption. From over 90% self-sufficiency in the 1950s, this rate dipped almost steadily until it bottomed in the early 2000s to under 20%. With an increased domestic harvest, the rate is approaching 40% in 2020 and means that Japan will need less imports to meet its wood demand; Japanese log, lumber and plywood exports are expected to all increase.
Plywood and EWP: Key trends include:
- Imported plywood: has seen a steady reduction, where almost of all the volumes remaining are tropical hardwood plywood. Softwood plywood imports are almost non-existent.
- Domestic glu-lam production: output was 1.915 million m3 in 2019 and this is expected to surge by at least 50% by 2025.
- Imported glu-lam: is around 800,000 to 900,000 m3 and a flat trend in demand is forecast over the next few years.
- Domestic LVL production: Strong domestic capacity growth is expected through 2025 – especially in non-structural LVL – with domestic production doubling to around 370,000 m3 (170,000 m3 structural and 200,000 m3 non-structural).
- Imported LVL: Imports were about 510,000 m3 in 2019 and this volume is expected to hold near this threshold for the next 3-4 years.
- Cross-laminated timber (CLT): is still a niche product so far in Japan and is likely to remain so over the next few years.
The full Part 1 report is available by request: simply send an email to: russtaylor@russtaylorglobal.com .
A Part 2 report (“Japan Market and Consumption Trends & Outlook”) will be released in January.
For further information, contact:
Russ Taylor, President
RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL
Email: russtaylor@russtaylorglobal.com
Mobile: +1 604 897 5666