This article was originally published in the Truck Logger Magazine – Summer Issue.
Several updates are included in this version.
BC Log and Lumber Export Analysis
Lumber export market is still challenging while log exports continue to hold steady.
By Russ Taylor, President, Russ Taylor Global
British Columbia has seen lower timber harvests and lumber production for many years now, and this directly impacts log and lumber exports. BC’s offshore shipments are a function of competitiveness in export markets, which has been a challenge now for more than 10 years. Nevertheless, BC exports continue at lower volume levels since key products still meet customer requirements.
BC log exports
Log exports have been a thorny and misunderstood issue, with the term “raw log” exports flaunted too often. My view is that log exports are a value-added product that targets specific species, grades, lengths, and diameters that are demanded by offshore customers. As a result, log exports achieve premium prices in targeted markets, as they should. Often, log exports involve species and grades that are less desirable for domestic mills (typically this has been hemlock logs, though there has been a shortage in the BC domestic market for much of the last year, an unlikely scenario compared to history). By harvesting more of the forest profile and using a component of the forest for log exports, loggers can increase their volumes and margins and also harvest more marginal forests.
Log exports occur in other countries, including the US and New Zealand. New Zealand exports 50 to 60% (more than 20 million m3) of its log harvest and it now has a larger timber harvest than BC.
BC exported 2.5 million m3 of softwood logs in 2025, a trend that has been in place since 2022. Based on log export permits, the bulk of log exports has come from private forest lands (about 1.5 to 1.8 million m3 per year) and the balance from Crown forest lands (1.0 to 1.1 million m3).
BC log exports’ recent peak was in 2013 at 6.7 million m3 during China’s construction boom. Since then, BC log exports have slowly declined to the current level.
In 2025, BC log exports by species (by permit) were heaviest to hemlock and balsam (49%) with Douglas fir totalling 42% (targeting Japan). China represented the largest market (59%) with Japan reaching 22% and the US at 16%.
More recently, the BC government has launched a two-year pilot program that has reduced the fee-in-lieu of manufacturing that will be applied to all timber from Coast cutting authorities for which applications for a provincial export permit are received on or after February 23, 2026 (except for applications under Orders in Council). This should allow for some increases in log exports, depending on logistics costs to market and delivered prices.
BC lumber exports
BC lumber exports have always focused on the US market, with 64% of production and 76% of total exports directed at the US in 2025. But with current US duties and tariffs totalling over 45%, the volumes started to drop in 2025 Q4.
Total BC lumber exports in 2025 were 5.1 billion bf, a drop of 12% from 2024. Lumber exports to the US were 3.83 billion bf in 2025, a drop of 14.3% from 2024. Aside from the US, other export markets in 2025 included China with 516 million bf (down 6.4% from 2024), Japan at 351 million bf (down 9%) and Taiwan with 119 million bf (down 5%). Other Asia represented 129 million bf (down 14%).
The US, China, and Japan represented 93% of total BC lumber exports in 2025. The rest of Asia totalled almost 4%, leaving the rest of the world with only a 3% share of total BC exports. As a result, BC could use a market diversification strategy. Outside of North America, sawmill technology is different and more flexible, so other regions can produce metric and imperial sizes. BC SPF mills are limited in their ability to produce metric-sized lumber; the BC Coast has always been able to produce metric and imperial sizes.
In the first five months of 2026, total BC lumber exports were lower by 13.8% compared to the same period in 2025. Exports to the US during this period were down by a whopping 17.1% to 1.46 billion bf (the bite of US duties and tariffs is evident) – this volume is almost 50% lower than what was shipped in the first five months of 2021. BC exports were lower to Japan by 19.5% but higher to China by 11.4%.
It will be challenging for BC mills in lumber export markets for much of 2026 unless demand improves or prices move higher—both looking to be unlikely until 2027.
Russ Taylor, President RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL
Email: russtaylor@russtaylorglobal.com www.russtaylorglobal.com